Gold Recovers as US-China Trade Deal Optimism Wanes
Gold prices are rebounding, trading near $3,260 as of Tuesday, clawing back from a 2.65% drop the previous session. The initial excitement surrounding the U.S.-China trade truce has begun to fade, as market participants express skepticism over the limited details and short-term nature of the 90-day tariff pause.
❝ Nearly there, but not quite. — President Trump’s deal is being viewed as a temporary reprieve rather than a comprehensive resolution. Analysts note the absence of concrete commitments such as firm timelines, defined negotiation topics, or additional figures. With such ambiguity, seasoned investors are opting for a cautious stance, rotating back into safe-haven assets like gold following Monday’s decline.
🔻XAUUSD On this Moved $120 In one day from $3326-$3206
recovered to $3266 High again on Tuesday Morning , currently trending at $3254 ✅
Broader Market Context:
Gold briefly hovered near a one-week low on Monday ($3206) after the trade deal announcement boosted risk sentiment, diminishing demand for traditional safe havens. However, profit-taking on USD long positions ahead of the U.S. CPI report has limited gold’s downside for now.
📈 CPI Outlook:
✅Headline inflation: Expected at 2.4% YoY
✅Core inflation: Forecast at 2.8% YoY
🚨A stronger-than-expected CPI reading would reinforce hawkish Fed expectations, strengthen the dollar, and likely weigh on gold prices. Conversely, a downside surprise could revive hopes for multiple Fed rate cuts in 2025, giving bullion a potential lift.
Technical Overview: Gold (XAUUSD) Analysis Today
•Daily Pivot Point: $3,248 aligns closely with the April 11 high of $3,245.
•Upside Targets:
R1: $3,289 (Tuesday resistance)
R2: $3,347 (Friday’s peak)
•Support Levels:
S1: $3,195 (double bottom)
S2: $3,167 (April 3 high)
SMA 200-day: $3,121 – key level if support breaks
🎯 Price Zones to Watch:
•Resistance (SZ): $3,340 / $3,378 / $3,408 / $3428
•Support (BZ): $3,215 / $3,190 / $3,165 / $3,135
Speeches from Fed officials and additional trade headlines from the Trump administration could further influence gold’s short-term trajectory.
Trading Framework – Positioning on Pullbacks | Reacting at Resistance
🟢 Rebound Strategy – Buy Zones:
- Entry: $3,215 → $3,190 → $3,165 → $3,135
- Targets: TP1 $3,250 → TP2 $3,265 → TP3 $3,295 → TP4 $3,320
🔴 Downtrend Strategy – Sell Zones:
- Entry: $3,340 → $3,378 → $3,408 → $3,428
- Targets: TP1 $3,310 → TP2 $3,290 → TP3 $3,260 → TP4 $3,230
📊 Technical Snapshot
Indicator Status
D1 SMA 100 ✅ Buy @ $3,050.15
D1 SMA 200 ✅ Buy @ $2,980.78
H4 SMA 100/200 ❌ Sell / ✅ Buy ($3,330 / $3,190)
H1 SMA 100/200 ❌ Sell ($3,310 / $3,325)
RSI (14) ❌ Sell
MACD / ADX / STOCH ❌ Sell / ❌ Sell / ⚖️ Neutral
ATR (14) 🔕 Low Volatility
Overall Sentiment ✅ Buy
📌 Key Guidance
- CPI data may trigger sharp moves—adjust stop-loss & lot sizes
- Watch: Headline CPI (YoY) and Core CPI (MoM) (April release)
- Prior zones have yielded results—levels remain highly actionable
🟡 Conclusion: Stay adaptable. CPI will guide short-term trend. We’re ready for breakouts or pullbacks.
⚠️ Risk management is your best strategy—profits follow discipline.
