Technical Overview
Gold has reclaimed bullish momentum after breaking above the 200-hour SMA, marking a key shift in trend. Daily chart oscillators now point higher, suggesting the path of least resistance remains to the upside.
🔹 Support Zone to Watch
The $3,330–$3,329 region—aligned with the 200-hour SMA—remains a strong base. Dips toward this level may attract fresh buyers. However, a decisive break below could open the door toward the $3,300 psychological mark.
🔹 Resistance Ahead
Immediate resistance stands near $3,363–$3,365, in line with last week’s highs. A sustained breakout could lift XAU/USD toward $3,400, and eventually $3,435–$3,440, neutralizing short-term downside risks.
🌐 Macro Drivers in Focus
Despite a modest bounce in the US Dollar, gold remains resilient, supported by growing conviction that the Federal Reserve will soon shift toward a rate-cutting cycle.
🔻 Weak Labor Market Signals
- ADP Payrolls: A surprising 33K job loss in June — the first contraction in over two years.
- JOLTS Data: Earlier figures hint at weakening demand for labor.
These indicators strengthen the dovish Fed narrative, keeping downward pressure on the USD.
💡 Rate Cut Expectations
- ~25% chance of a July rate cut
- A September cut is fully priced in
- Odds are rising for two or more cuts by year-end
📰 Geopolitics & Trade Talk Impact
Risk sentiment improved following:
- Trump’s Vietnam deal: Tariffs cut to 20%, with tariff-free access for US exports.
- US-India trade talks accelerating toward a potential deal before Trump’s July 9 deadline.
However, stalled negotiations with Japan and the looming deadline keep global trade risks elevated, offering continued support to safe havens like gold.
🎯 Trade Zones
🔽 SELL if spikes:
$3,389 → $3,418 → $3,445 → $3,478 → $3,510
🔼 BUY on dips:
$3,328 → $3,300 → $3,270 → $3,245 → $3,215
📍 Key Data Ahead:
Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report will be pivotal. A weak print could further validate dovish Fed bets, lifting gold. Strong data, however, may challenge current upside bias.
✅ Summary Outlook
Gold remains technically strong above $3,330, with soft labor data and lingering trade uncertainty favoring continued upside.
